THE VAULT · Cash Flow Forecast
Last updated: 2026-07-28 Status: Planning (Base Case)
Overview
This forecast covers 24 months: 12 months of pre-open / buildout (negative cash) plus 12 months of operations (ramp to profitability). The working capital reserve is the buffer. Month 9 is the targeted EBITDA crossover.
All figures in USD. Pre-open period assumes raise is closed before construction starts.
Pre-Open Period (Months -12 through -1)
Month -12 = raise closes + construction begins Month 0 = open day
| Month | Cash In | Cash Out | Net Cash | Cumulative Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -12 | $5,000,000 (raise) | $0 | $5,000,000 | $5,000,000 |
| -11 | $0 | ($250,000) | ($250,000) | $4,750,000 |
| -10 | $0 | ($350,000) | ($350,000) | $4,400,000 |
| -9 | $0 | ($400,000) | ($400,000) | $4,000,000 |
| -8 | $0 | ($400,000) | ($400,000) | $3,600,000 |
| -7 | $0 | ($400,000) | ($400,000) | $3,200,000 |
| -6 | $12,000 (founding presale begins) | ($380,000) | ($368,000) | $2,832,000 |
| -5 | $25,000 | ($350,000) | ($325,000) | $2,507,000 |
| -4 | $40,000 | ($320,000) | ($280,000) | $2,227,000 |
| -3 | $60,000 | ($290,000) | ($230,000) | $1,997,000 |
| -2 | $80,000 | ($220,000) | ($140,000) | $1,857,000 |
| -1 | $100,000 | ($180,000) | ($80,000) | $1,777,000 |
| Pre-Open Total | $317,000 | ($3,540,000) | ($3,223,000) |
Pre-open cash out covers: construction draws, equipment, deposits, legal, marketing, hires, permits. Pre-open cash in is founding member pre-sales (100 members at $200-$400 avg before full pricing activates).
Cash position at open day (Month 1 start): approximately $1,777,000.
This is the minimum acceptable reserve entering operations. If pre-open costs run high, the 15-month reserve buffer in the raise design absorbs it.
Operations Period: Months 1-12 (Year 1)
| Month | Revenue | COGS | Gross Profit | Fixed Opex | Debt Service | Net Cash Flow | Ending Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | $180,000 | $68,400 | $111,600 | $280,000 | $16,500 | ($184,900) | $1,592,100 |
| M2 | $210,000 | $79,800 | $130,200 | $280,000 | $16,500 | ($166,300) | $1,425,800 |
| M3 | $258,000 | $98,040 | $159,960 | $285,000 | $16,500 | ($141,540) | $1,284,260 |
| M4 | $305,000 | $115,900 | $189,100 | $285,000 | $16,500 | ($112,400) | $1,171,860 |
| M5 | $345,000 | $131,100 | $213,900 | $285,000 | $16,500 | ($87,600) | $1,084,260 |
| M6 | $395,000 | $150,100 | $244,900 | $290,000 | $16,500 | ($61,600) | $1,022,660 |
| M7 | $435,000 | $165,300 | $269,700 | $292,000 | $16,500 | ($38,800) | $983,860 |
| M8 | $467,000 | $177,460 | $289,540 | $292,000 | $16,500 | ($18,960) | $964,900 |
| M9 | $497,000 | $188,860 | $308,140 | $295,000 | $16,500 | ($3,360) | $961,540 |
| M10 | $525,000 | $199,500 | $325,500 | $295,000 | $16,500 | $14,000 | $975,540 |
| M11 | $553,000 | $210,140 | $342,860 | $298,000 | $16,500 | $28,360 | $1,003,900 |
| M12 | $592,000 | $224,960 | $367,040 | $298,000 | $16,500 | $52,540 | $1,056,440 |
| Y1 Total | $4,762,000 | $1,809,560 | $2,952,440 | $3,455,000 | $198,000 | ($700,560) |
Year 1 ending cash: approximately $1,056,440.
Note: The business is cash-negative through Month 9. The working capital reserve absorbs this. Reserve balance at the end of Y1 is approximately $1.06M, which represents about 3.5 months of operating cover. This is tighter than ideal. The 15-month reserve build in the capital raise is necessary to reach this point without a cash crisis.
Operations Period: Months 13-24 (Year 2)
Monthly detail is simplified here. See 3yr model for full P&L.
| Month | Revenue (Est) | Net Cash Flow | Ending Cash |
|---|---|---|---|
| M13 | $450,000 | $45,000 | $1,101,440 |
| M14 | $470,000 | $65,000 | $1,166,440 |
| M15 | $490,000 | $80,000 | $1,246,440 |
| M16 | $510,000 | $95,000 | $1,341,440 |
| M17 | $530,000 | $112,000 | $1,453,440 |
| M18 | $550,000 | $120,000 | $1,573,440 |
| M19 | $575,000 | $130,000 | $1,703,440 |
| M20 | $500,000 | $80,000 | $1,783,440 |
| M21 | $510,000 | $88,000 | $1,871,440 |
| M22 | $525,000 | $95,000 | $1,966,440 |
| M23 | $540,000 | $103,000 | $2,069,440 |
| M24 | $560,000 | $110,000 | $2,179,440 |
| Y2 Total | $6,210,000 | $1,123,000 |
Year 2 ending cash: approximately $2,179,440.
Y2 cash generation is the foundation for Taj’s partial distribution beginning Year 3 and optionally for real estate conversion (Scenario B).
Cash Flow Waterfall (Priority Order)
Every dollar that comes in follows this waterfall:
- Operating costs (rent, labor, COGS): funded first, no exceptions
- Debt service (SBA loan): fixed obligation, funded second
- Working capital reserve replenishment (to 90-day minimum at all times)
- Capital reserve for tax set-aside (25-30% of net income; held in separate account)
- Partial founder distributions (Year 3+ only; subject to reserve floor)
- Full founder distributions (Year 3+ when reserve > 6 months)
Reserve Floor Rules
| Reserve Level | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|
| < 30 days opex | CRITICAL | No discretionary spend; emergency review |
| 30-60 days opex | WARNING | Freeze non-essential opex; no distributions |
| 60-90 days opex | CAUTION | Distributions suspended; focus on member acquisition |
| > 90 days opex | HEALTHY | Normal operations; partial distributions eligible in Y3+ |
| > 180 days opex | STRONG | Full distribution schedule active |
Monthly opex (Y1): approximately $287,000 90-day reserve floor: $861,000 180-day reserve floor: $1,722,000
Cash position must exceed $861,000 before any non-payroll discretionary spending is authorized. This rule applies to Taj, Trill, and any operator.
Bear Case Cash Stress Test
If revenue runs 20% below base (bear case from revenue model):
| Metric | Base | Bear |
|---|---|---|
| Y1 Revenue | $4,762,000 | $3,809,600 |
| Y1 Net Cash Flow | ($700,560) | ($1,268,000) |
| Cash remaining at M12 | $1,056,440 | $509,000 |
| Months of reserve at M12 | 3.5 | 1.8 |
Bear case at M12 leaves only 1.8 months of reserve. This is a failure mode. Mitigation options: 1. Raise target is $5.5M instead of $5.0M (adds $500K buffer) 2. Trigger cost-reduction protocol at Month 6 if member count is below 200 3. Defer any non-critical capex in months 7-12 if trending bear
Scenario A vs Scenario B Cash Impact
| Item | Scenario A (Lease) | Scenario B (Buy) |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly cash outflow for space | $56,250 (NNN rent) | $35,000 (mortgage P+I) |
| Annual space cost | $675,000 | $420,000 |
| Net benefit of ownership | $255,000/yr | |
| But: additional capital locked in property | $0 | $1,000,000+ (down payment) |
| Cash available for operations | Higher | Lower |
The cash flow advantage of owning vs leasing is real at Year 3+ (saving $255K/yr). But the illiquidity of the down payment in Year 1 makes Scenario A the better cash position for the ramp period.