THE VAULT · Unit Economics
Last updated: 2026-07-28 Status: Planning
Overview
Unit economics are built bottom-up from Charlotte market pricing. Every revenue line has its own CAC, contribution margin, and LTV analysis. The blended member LTV is the north star for capital allocation.
1. Membership Unit Economics
1A. Pricing Tiers
| Tier | Monthly Price | Annual Equivalent | Target Mix Y3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Access | $299 | $3,588 | 45% (360 members) |
| Studio | $499 | $5,988 | 40% (320 members) |
| Black Card | $999 | $11,988 | 15% (120 members) |
| Blended | $475 | $5,700 | 800 total |
1B. Churn + Retention Assumptions
| Metric | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly churn rate | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Avg member lifespan (mos) | 18 | 25 | 40 |
| Annual retention rate | 54% | 70% | 83% |
1C. LTV by Tier
LTV = (Monthly Revenue per Member) / (Monthly Churn Rate)
| Tier | Monthly Price | Base Churn | LTV (Base) | LTV (Bear) | LTV (Bull) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Access | $299 | 4.0% | $7,475 | $5,436 | $11,960 |
| Studio | $499 | 3.5% | $14,257 | $9,073 | $19,960 |
| Black Card | $999 | 2.5% | $39,960 | $18,164 | $39,960 |
| Blended | $475 | 4.0% | $11,875 | $8,636 | $19,000 |
1D. Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC)
| Channel | Estimated CAC | Mix | Blended Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Founding member pre-sale (referral) | $150 | 30% | $45 |
| Social media organic + content | $200 | 25% | $50 |
| Paid digital (Meta, Google) | $450 | 20% | $90 |
| Events + community activations | $300 | 15% | $45 |
| Corporate B2B (amortized per member) | $250 | 10% | $25 |
| Blended CAC | 100% | $255 |
1E. LTV:CAC Ratio
| Scenario | LTV | CAC | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $8,636 | $300 | 28.8x |
| Base | $11,875 | $255 | 46.6x |
| Bull | $19,000 | $200 | 95.0x |
All three scenarios are strongly positive. CAC payback period at base: under 1 month (first membership payment covers CAC).
2. Class Drop-In Economics
2A. Per-Class P&L
| Item | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Drop-in price | $45 | $65 |
| Avg price | $55 | |
| Instructor cost per class (base pay) | $35 | $65 |
| Instructor % of revenue (if rev-share) | 30% | 40% |
| Room cost per class (allocated) | $10 | $15 |
| Platform/booking fee | $2 | $4 |
| Contribution per drop-in (base case) | $14 | $28 |
| Contribution margin | 25% | 43% |
2B. Class Throughput
| Metric | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Room capacity per class | 12 | 20 |
| Classes per room per day | 4 | 6 |
| Rooms available for classes | 3 | 5 |
| Avg fill rate (non-members) | 25% | 50% |
| Non-member drop-in classes per day | 9 | 25 |
| Revenue per day (drop-in only) | $495 | $1,375 |
| Monthly drop-in revenue | $14,850 | $41,250 |
3. Personal Training Economics
3A. Per-Session P&L
| Item | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Session price | $150 | $250 |
| Trainer take (employee: 50%; contractor: 60%) | $75 | $150 |
| Room allocation | $8 | $15 |
| Supplies/consumables | $3 | $5 |
| Contribution per session | $64 | $80 |
| Contribution margin | 30% | 43% |
3B. Volume Assumptions
| Metric | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active PT clients | 25 | 60 | 100 |
| Sessions/client/month | 4 | 6 | 8 |
| Total sessions/month | 100 | 360 | 800 |
| Monthly PT revenue | $20,000 | $72,000 | $160,000 |
4. Private Studio Room Economics
4A. Per-Hour P&L
| Item | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Room rate (member discount) | $60 | $90 |
| Room rate (non-member) | $75 | $125 |
| Blended room rate | $70 | $110 |
| Direct cost (cleaning, supplies, allocated utilities) | $12 | $20 |
| Contribution per hour | $58 | $90 |
| Contribution margin | 53% | 82% |
4B. Volume Assumptions (6 rooms)
| Metric | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avg rooms booked per day | 10 hrs | 20 hrs | 30 hrs |
| Monthly room-hours | 300 | 600 | 900 |
| Monthly room revenue | $21,000 | $54,000 | $90,000 |
5. Retail Micro-Boutique Economics
| Metric | Assumption |
|---|---|
| Avg transaction size | $85 |
| Transactions per day | 15-30 |
| Monthly transactions | 450-900 |
| Gross margin on product | 55-65% |
| Monthly revenue | $38,250-$76,500 |
| Monthly gross profit | $21,000-$49,725 |
| Shrink + ops allocation | 5% of revenue |
| Net contribution margin | 50-60% |
Primary SKUs: branded apparel, pole/dance footwear, supplements, recovery tools, accessories. No fashion inventory risk above 60-day turns.
6. Corporate Wellness Economics
6A. Per-Account P&L
| Tier | Annual Contract | Avg Members Served | Cost to Serve | Net Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basic | $15,000 | 10-15 | $4,000 | 73% |
| Standard | $25,000 | 20-30 | $7,500 | 70% |
| Premium | $40,000 | 40-60 | $14,000 | 65% |
6B. Volume Ramp
| Year | Accounts | Avg Contract | Annual Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 | 3 | $20,000 | $60,000 |
| Y2 | 8 | $25,000 | $200,000 |
| Y3 | 15 | $28,000 | $420,000 |
Charlotte corporate targets: Truist, Bank of America, Atrium Health, Honeywell, Sealed Air, Lowe’s HQ (Mooresville adjacent).
7. Blended Contribution Summary (Y3 Mature State)
| Revenue Line | Annual Revenue | Contribution Margin | Annual Gross Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Membership (800 members) | $4,560,000 | 70% | $3,192,000 |
| Personal Training | $1,920,000 | 37% | $710,400 |
| Private Studios | $1,080,000 | 68% | $734,400 |
| Class Drop-In | $420,000 | 35% | $147,000 |
| Corporate Wellness | $420,000 | 70% | $294,000 |
| Retail | $660,000 | 55% | $363,000 |
| Digital Membership | $180,000 | 80% | $144,000 |
| Vault Invitational (TWG fee separate) | $120,000 | 60% | $72,000 |
| Café | $240,000 | 30% | $72,000 |
| Total | $9,600,000 | 62% | $5,729,000 |
Fixed cost base at Y3: approximately $5.8M (see 3yr model). EBITDA 30-40% range requires holding fixed costs at this ceiling while scaling top line.
Key Assumptions
- Member pricing is positioned at or above Charlotte luxury fitness comparables (Equinox at $175-300/mo, boutique pole studios at $199-299/mo for unlimited)
- Black Card tier is intentionally limited; scarcity supports price integrity
- Instructor pay modeled as employees (W-2) for compliance; contractor mix assumed for specialized classes only
- No management fee to TWG in unit economics; Vault Invitational production fees are billed separately and reflected in TWG P&L, not VAULT’s