VAULT · Risk Register

Every material risk. What it looks like. What kills it. What we own to prevent it.

Scoring

Each risk scored on Likelihood (1-5) and Impact (1-5). Score = L × I. Priority = score band.

• 20-25 = P1 (existential)
• 12-19 = P2 (material)
• 6-11 = P3 (manage)
• 1-5 = P4 (accept + monitor)

The P1 register (existential)

R01. Ceilings and rigging on the wrong building

• Description: LOI signed on a property that cannot support pole rigging loads or does not have the ceiling height to enable the broadcast + competition build.
• L × I: 3 × 5 = 15 → but if it happens, it is fatal to the entire concept.
• Owner: Trill + GC + structural engineer.
• Prevention: Structural feasibility study before LOI is signed. Non-negotiable. Site scorecard in 04_MARKET_SELECTION_CHARLOTTE forces this.
• Mitigation if triggered: Kill LOI. Walk. Second-choice property waiting.

R02. Cash discipline breaks in Year 1

• Description: Buildout overruns, opening delay, or Y1 member ramp underperforms. Reserve depletes. Emergency dilution or shutdown.
• L × I: 3 × 5 = 15.
• Owner: Trill (CSO), fractional CFO, and monthly Founder Financial Review.
• Prevention: 12-18 month opex reserve locked before opening (governance in 05_FINANCE/07_FOUNDER_DISTRIBUTIONS). Buildout contingency 15% in budget. Monthly variance reporting Month 1 through Month 24.
• Mitigation if triggered: SBA line of credit standby. Emergency bridge from HNW angel pool identified in advance. Distribution freeze automatic.

R03. Taj gets pulled into daily operations

• Description: GM misfire or a crisis leads to Taj covering shifts, doing setup, or acting as operator. Burnout + brand dilution. Founder capacity is depleted at the moment strategic decisions are most important.
• L × I: 4 × 4 = 16.
• Owner: Trill + GM + advisor board.
• Prevention: Retained hospitality-industry recruiter (not LinkedIn) for GM. GM comp includes 2% equity through option pool for alignment. Advisor board watches for founder-in-ops signals monthly. Standing rule (memory-encoded) that no plan puts Taj back in ops delivery/setup.
• Mitigation if triggered: Emergency backfill from hospitality staffing agency (Aimbridge, Highgate). Interim GM authority extended to Director of Member Experience. Trill on-site more frequently to hold the room.

The P2 register (material)

R04. GM misfire

• Description: First GM hire does not perform. 12 months lost. Member churn. Brand standard erodes.
• L × I: 3 × 4 = 12.
• Prevention: Retained recruiter with hospitality background. 90-day review gate. Interim contract clause enabling clean exit before Year 1 close.
• Mitigation: 90-day trial exit. Backup candidate pool maintained.

R05. Pandemic redux Year 1 or Year 2

• Description: Health event forces temporary or extended closure. Revenue collapse before flywheel activates.
• L × I: 2 × 5 = 10 (upweighted given 2020 experience).
• Prevention: Full 13_PANDEMIC_RESILIENCE stack (MERV 14, UV-C, outdoor training deck, Day-1 digital membership, DTC apparel, corporate B2B contracts, 12-18 month reserve, own building or long fixed lease).
• Mitigation: Digital membership activates. Corporate + DTC revenue holds floor. Distribution freeze. Emergency line of credit drawn.

R06. THE VAULT INVITATIONAL Y1 underperforms

• Description: First-year competition fails to attract sponsors, streaming interest, or elite talent. Financial loss on Y1 event. National IP narrative wobbles.
• L × I: 3 × 4 = 12.
• Prevention: Sponsor + talent commitments pre-event. TWG production credibility as attractor. Break-even production budget with sponsor floor identified in 08_VAULT_INVITATIONAL/05_ECONOMICS. Streaming deal not required for Y1 success; live + sponsor + entry fees model.
• Mitigation: Y1 event framed as invitational not championship, headline pole/movement stars anchor. Y2 event pivots to true championship with lessons applied. Never bet the club on the competition.

R07. Buildout overrun or opening delay

• Description: GC underbid, permit delay, supply chain snag on custom finishes. 3-6 months late. Cash burn extends.
• L × I: 4 × 3 = 12.
• Prevention: GC with luxury build track record. 15% contingency in budget. Weekly buildout review with Trill, GC, architect. Long-lead items ordered Month 1 of buildout.
• Mitigation: Soft-open flexibility (invite-only) reduces urgency for full grand-open date.

R08. Corporate wellness B2B slow to close

• Description: Anchor accounts (BofA, Truist, Ally) take longer than expected. B2B revenue Y1 lags model.
• L × I: 4 × 3 = 12.
• Prevention: Soft pitches begin pre-open (Month -6). Fractional B2B sales support hired Month -3. Anchor account pilot pricing on offer.
• Mitigation: Model does not assume B2B revenue until Month 6. Y1 base case includes only 1 anchor account signed.

R09. Competitive entry from national brand

• Description: Equinox, Life Time, or a well-capitalized boutique announces Charlotte flagship 2027-2028.
• L × I: 3 × 4 = 12.
• Prevention: Speed to market (LOI signed 2026-Q4). Category-of-one positioning (pole + broadcast IP no competitor replicates). Founder-led brand gravity no chain matches.
• Mitigation: Compete on hospitality standard and IP, not on class variety or price. Deepen corporate + Signature-tier B2B contracts as moat.

R10. Franchise brand erosion (Y3+)

• Description: First franchisee dilutes the 5-star standard. Brand equity impaired before national scale.
• L × I: 3 × 4 = 12.
• Prevention: Franchisee screening (ADA-only, HNW requirement, hospitality track record). Field audit cadence. Termination triggers in franchise agreement. Taj creative director veto on GM hire + inaugural class of members.
• Mitigation: Aggressive brand-standard enforcement. First termination public (within franchise system) to set precedent.

The P3 register (manage)

R11. Instructor pipeline shortage (pole + dance)

• L × I: 3 × 3 = 9.
• Prevention: National recruiting from top pole studios and cirque programs. Housing stipend and signing bonuses. Y1 lead instructor comp above market by 20%.

R12. Membership churn in Y2

• L × I: 4 × 2 = 8.
• Prevention: Member NPS quarterly. Signature events + retreats + private access programs to retain Black Card tier. Loyalty tenure benefits at 12 and 24 months.

R13. Landlord or lease dispute

• L × I: 2 × 4 = 8.
• Prevention: Real estate attorney at LOI. Written TI allowance schedule. Force majeure clause negotiated.

R14. Instructor injury or member injury on pole

• L × I: 3 × 3 = 9.
• Prevention: Rigging inspection quarterly by certified rigger. Class waivers with pole-specific language. Progression gating (no advanced moves without prerequisite completion). Full 07_OPERATIONS/02_SAFETY_LIABILITY.

R15. Data breach or member privacy incident

• L × I: 2 × 4 = 8.
• Prevention: Cyber insurance rider. Tech stack SOC 2 or equivalent. Payment tokenization (never store card). Instructor + staff training on member confidentiality (celebrity + athlete members expected).

R16. Reputation attack (social media crisis)

• L × I: 3 × 3 = 9.
• Prevention: Crisis comms plan drafted pre-open. PR retainer with 24-hour response SLA. Taj + Trill trained on statement authorship.

The P4 register (monitor)

R17. Currency/interest rate shift affecting SBA rate

• Monitor at debt closing. Rerun model at commitment letter.

R18. Regional convention or event demand shift

• Not material to core model.

R19. Weather event forcing temporary closure

• Insurance rider (business interruption) covers.

R20. Retail apparel launch underperforms

• Not material to Y1-Y2. Retail launched Y2. Failure delays flywheel, not existential.

Review cadence

• Weekly: Trill + GM review the P1 register.
• Monthly: Full register reviewed. Rescore any risk that has moved. Add new risks. Retire resolved risks.
• Quarterly: Advisor board review. Founder Financial Review includes risk register update.
• Annual: Full rewrite of the register at anniversary of grand open.

Ownership summary