THE VAULT · 3-Year Financial Model
Last updated: 2026-07-28 Status: Planning (Base Case unless noted)
Assumptions
- Open date: M1 = month of opening (modeled as Month 1 of operations, not calendar)
- Pre-open burn is in the startup budget and capital stack; not in this P&L
- Membership ramp follows the curve in 02_REVENUE_MODEL
- Staffing ramp below is the largest variable cost driver
- No Taj W-2 through Y2; CSO Trill has no VAULT salary line
- Depreciation: buildout capitalized, amortized 15 years (leasehold improvements)
- Rent modeled at $45/sq ft NNN on 15,000 sq ft = $675,000/yr base
- Y1 = 12 months of operations (open day to month 12)
Y1 Monthly Ramp (Base Case)
| Month | Members | Total Revenue | COGS | Gross Profit | Fixed Opex | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | 65 | $180,000 | $68,400 | $111,600 | $280,000 | ($168,400) |
| M2 | 90 | $210,000 | $79,800 | $130,200 | $280,000 | ($149,800) |
| M3 | 135 | $258,000 | $98,040 | $159,960 | $285,000 | ($125,040) |
| M4 | 175 | $305,000 | $115,900 | $189,100 | $285,000 | ($95,900) |
| M5 | 210 | $345,000 | $131,100 | $213,900 | $285,000 | ($71,100) |
| M6 | 260 | $395,000 | $150,100 | $244,900 | $290,000 | ($45,100) |
| M7 | 300 | $435,000 | $165,300 | $269,700 | $292,000 | ($22,300) |
| M8 | 335 | $467,000 | $177,460 | $289,540 | $292,000 | ($2,460) |
| M9 | 365 | $497,000 | $188,860 | $308,140 | $295,000 | $13,140 |
| M10 | 400 | $525,000 | $199,500 | $325,500 | $295,000 | $30,500 |
| M11 | 435 | $553,000 | $210,140 | $342,860 | $298,000 | $44,860 |
| M12 | 475 | $592,000 | $224,960 | $367,040 | $298,000 | $69,040 |
| Y1 Total | 475 | $4,762,000 | $1,809,560 | $2,952,440 | $3,455,000 | ($502,560) |
Note: Y1 EBITDA is negative. This is expected and funded by the working capital reserve. The business crosses into positive EBITDA at approximately Month 9.
Staffing Model
Y1 Staffing (Annualized)
| Role | FT/PT | Count | Annual Cost (salary + burden) |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Manager | FT | 1 | $90,000 |
| Head of Programming / Lead Instructor | FT | 1 | $75,000 |
| Instructors (pole, dance, fitness) | FT | 4 | $200,000 |
| Personal Trainers | Mix | 4 | $140,000 |
| Front Desk + Member Services | FT/PT | 3 | $90,000 |
| Café Lead | FT | 1 | $42,000 |
| Retail Associate | PT | 1 | $22,000 |
| Cleaning + Facilities | PT | 2 | $48,000 |
| Marketing Coordinator | FT | 1 | $55,000 |
| Y1 Total Headcount | 18 | $762,000 |
Payroll burden (taxes, benefits): 20% = $152,400 Y1 Total Labor Cost: $914,400
Y2 Additions
| Role | Count | Annual Cost |
|---|---|---|
| Additional Instructors | 3 | $150,000 |
| Additional Trainers | 2 | $70,000 |
| Corporate Sales Lead | 1 | $70,000 |
| Operations Manager | 1 | $65,000 |
| Y2 Labor Additions | 7 | $355,000 + burden |
Y2 Total Labor Cost (estimated): $1,340,000
Y3 Additions
| Role | Count | Annual Cost |
|---|---|---|
| Additional Instructors | 2 | $100,000 |
| Additional Trainers | 2 | $70,000 |
| Director of Brand + Digital | 1 | $85,000 |
| Taj W-2 Salary begins Y3 | 1 | $250,000 |
| Y3 Labor Additions | 6 | $505,000 + burden |
Y3 Total Labor Cost (estimated): $2,214,000
Fixed Operating Expenses (Annual)
| Expense | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rent (NNN base) | $675,000 | $689,000 | $703,000 |
| NNN (CAM, taxes, insurance) | $90,000 | $95,000 | $100,000 |
| Utilities | $120,000 | $135,000 | $150,000 |
| Labor (see above) | $914,400 | $1,340,000 | $2,214,000 |
| Technology + subscriptions | $60,000 | $75,000 | $90,000 |
| Marketing + advertising | $200,000 | $180,000 | $150,000 |
| Insurance (ops) | $30,000 | $35,000 | $40,000 |
| Accounting + legal | $40,000 | $50,000 | $60,000 |
| Repairs + maintenance | $30,000 | $45,000 | $60,000 |
| Leasehold amortization | $133,000 | $133,000 | $133,000 |
| Miscellaneous + contingency | $30,000 | $40,000 | $50,000 |
| Total Fixed Opex | $2,322,400 | $2,817,000 | $3,750,000 |
Annual P&L Summary
| Line | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $4,762,000 | $6,118,160 | $9,600,000 |
| COGS (instructor pay, PT splits, product COGS, café COGS) | $1,809,560 | $2,052,000 | $2,870,000 |
| Gross Profit | $2,952,440 | $4,066,160 | $6,730,000 |
| Gross Margin | 62% | 66% | 70% |
| Fixed Opex | $2,322,400 | $2,817,000 | $3,750,000 |
| EBITDA | ($502,560) | $1,249,160 | $2,980,000 |
| EBITDA Margin | (11%) | 20% | 31% |
| Interest (debt service on raise) | $160,000 | $200,000 | $200,000 |
| Depreciation + amortization | $133,000 | $133,000 | $133,000 |
| Net Income | ($795,560) | $916,160 | $2,647,000 |
Y3 EBITDA of 31% is within the 30-40% target range at the base membership case (800 members).
Sensitivity Analysis
Y3 EBITDA by Member Count
| Y3 Members | Total Revenue | EBITDA | EBITDA Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 600 (bear) | $7,840,000 | $1,620,000 | 21% |
| 700 | $8,680,000 | $2,300,000 | 26% |
| 800 (base) | $9,600,000 | $2,980,000 | 31% |
| 900 (bull) | $10,400,000 | $3,600,000 | 35% |
| 1,000 (stretch) | $11,200,000 | $4,050,000 | 36% |
Y1 EBITDA Sensitivity (Month 9 Breakeven Test)
| Scenario | Y1 Revenue | Y1 EBITDA | Cash Burn (ex-reserve) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear (-20% ramp) | $3,809,600 | ($1,055,000) | Reserve depleted ~M18 |
| Base | $4,762,000 | ($502,560) | Reserve sufficient |
| Bull (+15% ramp) | $5,476,300 | ($82,000) | Reserve largely intact |
Bear case flag: if member ramp runs 20% below plan, the 12-month reserve is not enough. An 18-month reserve (funded in capital raise) is the prudent position.
Key Milestones + Triggers
| Milestone | Target Month | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| 100 founding members (pre-open) | Pre-M1 | De-risks ramp; ~$40K MRR before doors open |
| EBITDA positive | M9 | First month of operational profit |
| Reserve no longer at risk | M12 | Burn rate < monthly EBITDA generation |
| 500 members | M14 | Blended MRR exceeds $225K |
| Y2 profitability | M24 | $1.25M EBITDA; Taj eligible for partial distributions |
| Taj W-2 begins | M25 (Y3 start) | $250K salary initiated |
| Distribution eligible | M36 | Full distribution schedule activates |
| Debt paydown or refi | Y3-Y4 | Recapitalize for expansion or property acquisition |